Daily Broad Market Recap – September 17, 2025

The spotlight was on the FOMC decision for the most part of the day, contributing to market caution in early trading sessions before volatility spiked later on.

The Bank of Canada also announced its decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected but triggered only a muted reaction from Loonie pairs.

Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!

Headlines:

• China’s new service sector measures pledges to further open sectors such as internet, culture, telecommunications, medical care, and education while attracting increased foreign and private investment
• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence for September 30, 2025: 90.9 (93.0 forecast; 91.2 previous)
• New Zealand Current Account for June 30, 2025: -0.97B (-2.5B forecast; -2.32B previous)
• Japan Balance of Trade for August 2025: -242.5B (-450.0B forecast; -117.5B previous)
  • Japan Imports for August 2025: -5.2% y/y (-7.5% y/y previous)
  • Japan Exports for August 2025: -0.1% y/y (-2.6% y/y previous)
• Australia Westpac Leading Index for August 2025: -0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
• U.K. Retail Price Index for August 2025: 4.6% y/y (4.7% y/y forecast; 4.8% y/y previous); 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
• U.K. Consumer Price Index Growth for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 3.8% y/y (3.8% y/y forecast; 3.8% y/y previous)
  • U.K. Core Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: 3.6% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.8% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
• Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous); 2.0% y/y (2.1% y/y forecast; 2.0% y/y previous)
  • Euro area Core Consumer Price Index Growth Final for August 2025: 2.3% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.3% y/y previous)
• Mixed commentary from ECB officials:
  • ECB policymaker Escriva noted that they should be flexible in adjusting policy in either direction
  • ECB official de Guindos reiterated that current level of interest rates is appropriate
• Financial Times reported that China directed its tech companies to halt buying Nvidia AI chips
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for September 12, 2025: 6.39% (6.49% previous)
  • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for September 12, 2025: 29.7% (9.2% previous)
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases for July 2025: 26.69B (0.71B previous)
  • Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians for July 2025: 17.41B (9.04B previous)
• U.S. Housing Starts for August 2025: -8.5% m/m (-3.4% m/m forecast; 5.2% m/m previous); 1.31M (1.37M forecast; 1.43M previous)
• U.S. Building Permits Prel for August 2025: -3.7% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; -2.2% m/m previous)
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision for September 17, 2025: 2.5% (2.5% forecast; 2.75% previous)
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 12, 2025: -9.29M (3.94M previous)
• U.S. Federal Funds Rate for September 17, 2025: 4.25% (4.25% forecast; 4.5% previous)
  • U.S. FOMC Economic Projections:
    • Dot plot showed that most Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to fall significantly with the median projection clustered around 3.50–3.75%, implying two additional 0.25% cuts in October and December 2025
    • Inflation forecasts unchanged for the year then upgraded in 2026, growth forecasts upgraded for this year and next
  • Dissent emerged from newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who pushed for a steeper single 50 bp cut; however, the consensus remains for incremental easing
  • Powell said that recent indicators confirm GDP growth has moderated, risks to labor market main focus in the September meeting

Broad Market Price Action:

Markets were off to another cautious start during the Asian session, as traders bit their nails ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC decision.

Gold started unwinding its earlier safe-haven anti-USD gains, with bulls likely closing positions before the key event. Although a bit of a rebound was seen during the first few hours of the U.S. session, the precious metal sold off sharply during the FOMC announcement, closing 0.81% in the red while USD strengthened.

WTI crude oil was also on the back foot during Asian market hours and supply fears appeared to fade in the background while the focus shifted to expectations for the the Fed announcement. The energy commodity pulled higher after the EIA crude oil inventories report revealed a surprise draw of 9.3 million barrels versus the projected build of 1.4 million barrels, but gains were also erased after the Fed event.

U.S. equity indices also closed in the red, with the S&P 500 index down 0.10% by session’s end, as markets reversed the initial post-FOMC pop higher when Fed head Powell downplayed the latest BLS payrolls downgrade during the press conference.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

The dollar started on a bit of wobbly ground before finding its footing a few hours into the Asian session, possibly driven by profit-taking on previous bearish USD positions ahead of the FOMC decision.

Stronger than expected trade figures from Japan led to a brief dip for USD/JPY while mostly downbeat U.K. inflation data contributed to some losses for GBP/USD, before the dollar went on a gradual slide leading up to the U.S. market open.

Mixed price action among dollar pairs ensued early in the New York session, as counter currency flows came in play, including the Loonie’s muted bearish reaction to the BOC decision. The yen and pound remained firm as the FOMC decision drew near, but these currencies weren’t spared from the dollar’s whipsaws during the actual event.

As expected, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with the dot plot projections of interest rates suggesting more easing moves than previously anticipated for the remainder of 2025. Although the dollar also dipped on Miran’s calls for a 0.50% rate cut, the U.S. currency rebounded sharply during the presser when Powell downplayed labor market risks.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Swiss Balance of Trade for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 7:10 am GMT
• Euro area Construction Output for July 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• Euro area ECB Schnabel Speech at 9:45 am GMT
• U.K. BOE Policy Decision & MPC Minutes at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for September 13, 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. CB Leading Index MoM for August 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for July 2025 at 8:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for September 17, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
• New Zealand Balance of Trade for August 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
• U.K. Gfk Consumer Confidence for September 2025 at 11:01 pm GMT
• Japan Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT

We’ve got another top-tier central bank event lined up today! This time, markets will be hearing from the Bank of England, as U.K. policymakers are expected to announce a less dovish decision after their previous “hawkish split.”

Keep an eye out for the U.S. initial jobless claims figure as well since dollar traders are still wary of deteriorating labor market conditions.

As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!